To contact ExplAnalysis:

Phone: 817-637-6189

email: jbrown_geologist@hotmail.com

Methodology

EXPLAnalysis, Llc

Typically, ExplAnalysis becomes involved in the Risk Analysis process at the time when your professionals have completed their integration of all geological and geophysical data into map form.  Our role is generally  not to interpret these data, but rather to facilitate the process of objectively assessing chance of success, and  success-case volume expectations.  This is usually a joint effort involving the prospect generator and a representative of EA.

 

The key to realistic volume assessments - whether for prospects or aggregates of prospects - is to assure that the inputs used in the analysis are plausible - and capture the range of ALL possible outcomes, given success, tied to the specific characteristics of that particular opportunity.

 

Since there is a wide range of possible volume outcomes, these inputs are modeled probabilistically (ranged inputs) using a series of Excel®-based templates developed by Dr. Brown to manage the process.  Once the inputs are finalized, a fully stochastic (Monte Carlo) solution is achieved using Oracle, Inc’s Crystal Ball® or Palisade’s @RISK® engine, simulating the ‘drilling’ the prospect, or portfolio of prospects many thousands of times.

 

Results (success case volume) are presented in the form of a cumulative probability distribution, which permits the user to see the probability associated with finding a certain volume outcome (or more).  In addition, the chance of finding measurable, flowable hydrocarbons (“geologic chance”) and the chance of finding volumes sufficient to complete the discovery well (“commercial chance”) are calculated.

 

For a family of prospects (portfolio/play),  we simulate executing an exploration program.  On each Monte Carlo ‘pass’, different prospects prove successful (or dry), with different volume results.  The results for the program provide the aggregated, chance-weighted volumetric potential of all the prospects.  In addition, the chance that your firm will exit the play before a discovery is made is calculated.  From this information it is a simple process to calculate whether the play is an efficient place for your firm to be operating - or not!

 

 

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